Numbers Not Enough?

Hello all.... Hopefully everyone had a great Memorial Day weekend, and the hangovers are mostly gone by now. I'm back at it today, but before I start I have a little side-note. Some readers have been asking about why I haven't been covering things like the NBA playoffs and current happenings in the world of sports. I reference all of those readers to a site called www.espn.com , if you want recaps, and Twenty different articles on Lebron James' press conference, then that site has you covered. I am here to write opinion based posts on things that are a little... "outside the box", if you will.

Enough of that, this brings me to todays topic aka my 20 minute break from work. My mind is slowly but surely making the transition from Basketball to Football. Looking back at all  32 teams drafts, I have been thinking a lot about the Andy Dalton dilemma. Most people probably don't even know what the Andy Dalton dilemma is, and thats OK because I don't think its ever been mentioned as so before now. The dilemma that I am talking about is a somewhat underground discussion that is seemingly ongoing, that is, do numbers stop mattering if you don't perform at a high level when it matters most?

Andy Dalton went from a guy with pretty low expectations, to one of the bigger surprises in the 2011 season. Dalton's numbers weren't breathtaking his Rookie year ( 3,400 Yards 20 TD and 13 INT with an 80.5 rating ), but they definitely exceeded what anybody had thought he might do, outside of maybe a couple TCU fans, and were good enough to win the starting QB job in Cincinnati ( having AJ Green didn't hurt ). On an even more positive note for Dalton, now in his third year, his REGULAR SEASON numbers have increased each year he has been in the league, and last year he posted 4,300 Yards 33 TD and 20 INT with an 89 rating, definitely respectable numbers for a starting QB. The Bengals have increased by one win each year, finished first in their division in 2013-14 season, and Dalton has been to the playoffs every year since joining the league. This is where the problem starts.

When stating that an NFL QB has made the playoffs every year since joining the league, it is rarely followed by stating that there may be a problem brewing. Andy Dalton's case is a little bit different from most though. It is indeed true that Dalton has helped his team get to the playoffs Three years in a row, and it's also true that his numbers have increased at a gradual level from year to year... in the regular season. 718 Yards 1 TD 6 INT, with a rating of 54.4.... no, I did not just decide to write out Blaine Gabbert's season numbers for the heck of it, these are the numbers of the same QB who is gradually increasing in the regular season, and seemingly starting to look like a very capable QB in this league. To say the least, Andy Dalton has struggled MIGHTLY in essentially every aspect of the playoffs. He looks like a different player out there, and he most definitely doesn't look like a QB who has any business being on the field in a playoff game.

This brings me back to my original question, do regular season numbers matter if you can't perform on the bigger stages ( Playoffs )? Some people would say that if he hadn't performed at such a good level in the regular season then they wouldn't be in the playoffs in the first place ( that argument has many holes, but thats for a different day... or the comment section ). First off, it would be a different argument if Dalton's numbers went from, lets say, a rating of 90 to somewhere in the low 80s or high 70s, but Andy Dalton literally goes from looking like a top 12-15 QB during weeks 1-16, to someone who wouldn't make it on an average college team. Believers may say that teams know how to game plan for him during the playoffs ( aka double and triple AJ Green ). This is probably true to an extent, but that is true with any team, they are going to make it tough to get the ball to your best playmakers, thats the idea anyway. Great/succesful QBs find a way to make plays happen, use pump fakes, find other options etc. The Bengals are far from equivalent to the 2001 Philadelphia 76ers, meaning they don't have a single superstar and then drop off to D-league players. Cincinatti might not have the most depth of playmakers, but they do have Giovanni Bernard, Jermaine Gresham, Tyler Eifert etc. These guys are all capable of making some plays, and should be able to take at least a little pressure off of AJ Green, right? Andy Dalton obviously doesn't seem to think so, or maybe Green has made him look a lot better than he really is?

It seems to really stem down to a mixture of my latter statement, and confidence, when it comes to Andy Dalton. AJ Green has definitely made Dalton appear to be a lot better than he is, and when teams take Green away, we are starting to see that rapidly. Also, when Green gets taken away, Dalton seems to lose all confidence in his team and himself. So to answer my question, I personally think that regular season numbers to take a back seat to playoff numbers in a big way. If you are barely serviceable in the regular season, and numbers sky rocket in the post season, then I'll take you on my team, but not the opposite. I believe Andy Dalton's days as a starter are already numbered, and AJ Mcarron could possibly push him for that job sooner rather than later. That is todays NFL, one year the guy is blowing up expectations, a couple years later we are having this discussion. You have to get to a high level, and STAY there... especially on the stages that matter most. Good luck Andy, may confidence find you, or may you be blessed with another AJ Green. Neither Seem likely to happen.